Canadians will head to the polls on Monday for an election heavily influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric, with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party now favoured to win after a remarkable political comeback.
The snap election follows months of political upheaval, beginning on January 6 when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.
At that point, the Liberals were trailing the opposition Conservatives by over 20 points, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre seemed poised to become Canada’s next prime minister.
However, the political climate changed dramatically after Trump launched a chaotic trade war with Canada and suggested absorbing the country into the United States—comments that enraged Canadians, led to boycotts of U.S. travel, and saw the American anthem booed at sporting events.
Carney, a 60-year-old former central bank governor for both Canada and the U.K., took over from Trudeau on March 14 and quickly made countering Trump’s threat the centrepiece of his campaign.
“The U.S. wants to break us to own us,” Carney declared, arguing that his international financial experience made him the right leader to defend Canada’s sovereignty.
“Pierre Poilievre has no plan to stand up to President Trump,” Carney said at a rally Friday. “Unlike Pierre, I’ve handled budgets, economies, and crises before. Now is the time for experience, not experiments.”
Poilievre, 45, a seasoned Parliament member of two decades, struggled to regain momentum. Although he criticised Trump as well, he attempted to steer the conversation back to domestic concerns, especially the rising cost of living under a decade of Liberal rule.
“If we stay on this lost Liberal path, more despair awaits,” he warned on Thursday.
Experts suggest Poilievre’s combative political style, once seen as a strength, may have turned off crucial voters, particularly women and moderates.
Polling indicates the Liberals are on track to form the next government, though the race remains close.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s poll aggregator showed Liberal support dipping slightly to 42 percent on Friday, with the Conservatives at 38 percent. Meanwhile, support for the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois has declined, which could help the Liberals in key regions like Ontario and Quebec.
A record-breaking 7.3 million Canadians — about 25 percent more than in 2021 — cast early ballots over the Easter weekend, reflecting heightened public engagement.
“This election feels much more critical,” said Montreal voter Nathalie Tremblay. “Everyone’s worried about what’s happening in the U.S. We need strong leadership.”
Others, like 49-year-old entrepreneur Simon-Pierre Lepine, expressed dissatisfaction. “The Liberals have buried us in debt. I believe Conservatives are better economic managers,” he said.
Political experts describe the 2025 race as among the most unpredictable in recent history.
McGill University political scientist Daniel Beland noted that Conservative efforts to shift attention away from Trump largely failed.
Analyst Tim Powers agreed, adding that the Conservatives had hoped to campaign mainly on affordability concerns.
“They planned for a campaign against Trudeau, not against Trump and global instability,” Powers said. “It’s been a strange election full of surprises.”
Final results are expected within hours after polls close Monday, with Canada’s future leadership — and its response to an increasingly volatile U.S. — hanging in the balance.